Notes from 6/13/2012 CSTAR TC Boundary/QPF conference call
- Barrett Smith (RAH)
- Gary Lackmann (NCSU)
- Jordan Dale (NCSU)
- Frank Alsheimer (CHS)
- Jonathan Blaes (RAH)
- Jim Hudgins (RNK)
- Jordan Dale presented his most recent analysis of TS Ernesto. 20km RUC surface frontogenesis fields were compared to subjective surface analyses for verification of frontal locations. For the most part, the subjectively analyzed fronts matched well with the RUC analyses, although there were some discrepancies in areas where there are limited observations. The RUC frontogenesis fields depict the merger of TS Ernesto with the stalled synoptic front over eastern NC and the subsequent frontal evolution toward an occluded system over southeast VA. A coastal front was also evident in RUC fields out ahead of TS Ernesto, along with a frontal fracture as the storm moved inland.
- Upper air analyses (20km RUC) showed a broad upper trough over the Midwest and a mid-latitude jet over the Mid-Atlantic States as TS Ernesto approached the Southeast coast. The upper rough helped to steer TS Ernesto northward through the Carolinas and VA, while the mid –latitude jet remained just to the north of the storm.
- It was suggested that a list of best practices for subjective frontal analysis could be put together to help/remind forecasters how to recognize the important frontal features.
- Jordan also presented a rough timeline of target dates and goals he hopes to achieve over the next 6 months, which includes modeling of TS Ernesto and analyzing a second case.
- The group also discussed the forecast and impacts associated with TD Beryl, which impacted the region at the end of May:
- A couple main points came out of the brief discussion; TD Beryl appeared to interact with a remnant outflow boundary drift across central NC /VA, which lead to redevelopment of convection out ahead of TD Beryl. Further south, where more widespread rain near the center of TD Beryl fell long and just to northwest of the track. Model forecasts consistently picked up on the basic QPF areas with the system, but were inconsistent at times with the placement of heaviest QPF. In addition to recognizing where the weak outflow boundary was located ahead of TD Beryl, isentropic analysis could have proven useful in forecasting the northward and westward shift of rainfall from the storm center. Also see… http://cimmse.wordpress.com/2012/05/29/boundary-impacts-with-td-beryl/
The next call is scheduled for Wednesday, July 11th .