Monthly Archives: August 2010

HUR-NC, what is it?

With Earl approaching the coast of North Carolina, I am aware that a number of people are taking a look at the “HUR-NC” forecasts. Here, I will provide a little bit of information about this model. HUR-NC is the Advanced … Continue reading

Posted in CSTAR, NWP, TC Improved Initial Conditions | 1 Comment

What kind of Swirl will Earl Unfurl?

This is a quick update as to what HUR-NC is doing with Earl. We are all waiting to see which model verifies, and HUR-NC has had Earl hugging the coastline since the 00Z run on August 28th. Here is the … Continue reading

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More on TC Initial Conditions in WRF: GFS vs. GFDL Bogus Vortex

Here are some higher resolution images that illustrate the differences between the GFS-only initial conditions and the GFDL/GFS Merged initial conditions (please see my first post for background). The first 4 animations are the models’ representations of SLP (mb), simulated … Continue reading

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High Shear/Low CAPE (HSLC) Convective Operations at WFO GSP

Environmental Assessment: GSP forecasters loosely define low CAPE environments as situations in which 0 < surface-based CAPE < 500 J kg-1. Forecaster experience and climatological studies have shown that CAPE values in excess of this number tend to result in … Continue reading

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Some preliminary thoughts regarding severe weather in high shear-low CAPE environments

In the past fifteen years, at WFO Greenville – Spartanburg (GSP) we have investigated several severe weather events produced by quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) that occurred in a high shear-low CAPE (HSLC) environment.  The severe weather events were mainly tornadic … Continue reading

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Preliminary work testing different ICs in the RENCI/NCSU HUR-NC Model

Hi All, I wanted to share some of the work I have been doing, comparing different options for TC initial conditions (ICs) in our HUR-NC WRF model. The objective of my work is to find out what the optimal IC … Continue reading

Posted in CSTAR, TC Improved Initial Conditions | 2 Comments

Agenda for Kickoff Conference Call 8/4/10

CSTAR Kickoff Conference Call Agenda 1100 AM Wednesday, August 4th Welcome (2-3 mins) How we got here – input from around 10 WFOs, HMT-SE Scope of project – 3 years, participants include NCSU, RENCI, 11 WFOs, 2 or 3 NCEP … Continue reading

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