This is a quick update as to what HUR-NC is doing with Earl. We are all waiting to see which model verifies, and HUR-NC has had Earl hugging the coastline since the 00Z run on August 28th.
Here is the 72-hour SLP and simulated radar reflectivity forecast from today’s 00Z run, valid 9/3 at 00Z:
And below is the track map for Earl’s center from the same model run. It looks like the forecast for the eastern seaboard will depend greatly on small changes in the steering flow. You can see from the SLP chart on the right side of the diagram that the initial conditions are off by approximately 60 millibars for the 3-km grid-length domain, so the intensity forecast may not be as reliable as the track forecast from HUR-NC right now. This will make a great future case-study for our initial conditions work!
For HUR-NC’s full forecast, click here: http://www.sensordatabus.org/wrf/Pages/HurNCImagesLoops.aspx