Jonathan sent the following images to Anantha and myself today. The figure sums up many of the issues related to landfalling TCs and their associated winds. Anantha and I visited the Raleigh NWS Office yesterday to see the process of forecasting these winds. The image to the left shows the product handed down by NHC, which the NWS offices are responsible for being consistent with. The images in the middle and to the right are the sustained wind speed and gust forecasts respectively generated by the NWS. Note how the NWS office domain boundaries are apparent in the forecast. For example, in Northeastern NC, there is a region where wind gusts drop sharply from the dark reds to the light yellows in a vary narrow region. A stronger scientific basis, unbias to the NWS office domains, must be utilized to improve these wind forecasts. The research coordinated by Anantha over the coming months will aim to improve these forecasts. In addition, we hope to improve gust factors and land vs. sea wind speeds associated with these TCs.
We welcome any comments related to the process of developing the process of forecasting winds during landfalling TC situations.