Thanks for the reply. I think the image from the paper is a classic example of what we have to work on. Two questions I have after looking at the image as I continue to develop an understanding of the current and past TC wind forecasting techniques. First, it is my understanding the guidance from NHC best track data serves as a starting point for forecasters predicting TC winds during landfalling storms. Forecasts must be consistent with best track data. Has this always been the case? If so, why are there two different forecasted locations for Charley (one near Jacksonville, one in the Gulf)? This leads me to my second hypothesis: did the two offices not use the same best track forecast as a starting point? The images below show the changes in forecasted locations over a sequence of advisory periods. Did the forecast office in Jacksonville not communicate with the office in Tampa?
Shown below is the NARR Reanalysis 1000mb winds for the forecasted time I plotted, FYI.