TD 16 provides examples of current, recent, and past collaborative research

A tropical plume of moisture is expected to spread into portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic during the next few days with TD 16 approaching the Carolina coast as well. Forecasters across the region will be faced with a variety of forecast and warning challenges during the next few days. Some of these challenges have been studied recently and information is available to help operational forecasters. Several issues are currently being examined or will be examined during the next year or two. An admittedly incomplete list of studies and resources is shown below relevant to the upcoming event is shown below.

 Ongoing NCSU collaborative research

  • Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes
  • Improved Initial Conditions for Tropical Cyclones
  • Improved Quantitative Precipitation & Ensemble Prediction of Tropical Cyclones
  • Improving Inland Forecasts of Wind and Wind Gusts from Tropical Cyclones

 Local WFO and NCSU related research

  •  Radar Signatures of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes in Central North Carolina

Publication – http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF992.1

Reference – http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/workshops/2006.sharp.tropical.cyclone.tornadoes.ppt

  •  WFO RNK Tropical Cyclone Tornado Climatology

Reference – http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/workshops/2006.hudgins.rain.ppt

  •  Enhanced Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones

Publication – http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/workshops/2006.croke.tc.precip.ppt

  •  Rainfall Distributions in the Appalachians from Tropical Systems

Reference –http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/workshops/Hudgins_Hvy_Rain_CSTAR.ppt

 Other related research

  • Predecessor rain events in tropical cyclones

Publication – http://ams.confex.com/ams/12meso/techprogram/paper_125950.htm

Reference –

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/bmoore/research/PRE_COMP/PRE_COMP.html

  • Precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical cyclones over the eastern United States

Publication – http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR3382.1

  •  The Use of Ensemble and Anomaly Data to Anticipate Extreme Flood Events in the Northeastern U.S.

Publication – http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/papers/HeavyrainspreprintWAF_stuart.pdf

Data – http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/

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This entry was posted in CSTAR, General Information, TC and Boundary QPF, TC Improved Initial Conditions, TC Inland and Marine Winds. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to TD 16 provides examples of current, recent, and past collaborative research

  1. Barrett Smith says:

    JB and all,

    A timely posting as usual. This looks like a nice case for a combination of a predecessor rain event (PRE) and also a potential for what would be a left of track precipitation distribution if this system were to play out as a tropical system, although from what I hear on my day off it may be absorbed into the mid-latitude trough. Either way, with high pressure sitting over the eastern Ohio River Valley Region and a synoptic/coastal front poised to surge inland, there is an opportunity for strong low level frontogenesis as the coastal front meets a relatively drier and more stable airmass over the Piedmont region of the Carolinas and Virginia. This would present a situation somewhat similar to that in Tropical Storm Hanna (among other storms), which is currently the focus an ongoing research project within CSTAR. If I knew how to get a website pointed to a power point file quickly, I would show a conference presentation on this topic, but I’ll follow up with that in the near future. Nevertheless, good to see recognition of these forecast problems well before the event, much like what the PRE folks have been sending around via email lists.

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