Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel

An article recently appeared in WAFs that examines Hurricane Isabel from a modeling perspective. I only gave the paper a quick glance through but thought I would pass it along since it notes some of the research topics in the CSTAR project including inland winds from tropical cyclone, inland precipitation issues, and the importance of initialization in TC modeling.

Lin, Ning, James A. Smith, Gabriele Villarini, Timothy P. Marchok, Mary Lynn Baeck, 2010: Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel (2003). Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1342–1361.

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This entry was posted in CSTAR, TC and Boundary QPF, TC Improved Initial Conditions, TC Inland and Marine Winds. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Modeling Extreme Rainfall, Winds, and Surge from Hurricane Isabel

  1. bptyner says:

    Thanks for the paper suggestion, JB. I finally had time to read the paper, and I have to agree with JB that this paper is of significant interest to the CIMMSE community. The impacts of initialization of the TC are made apparent for the case of Isabel (2003). Also, as Gary brought up in our kickoff meeting a few weeks ago, predicting wind speeds and rainfall associated with the outer rain bands are a significant forecasting challenge related to model initialization.

    In the study, none of the model runs were able to capture the asymmetric nature of the wind field, with a significant stronger wind field on the right side of the strong. I am in the processing of looking at forecast output from NHC and WFOs from this storm to see if the forecast captured this assymetry reasonably well.

    • gary lackmann says:

      Hi JB and all,
      I read this paper as well, and found it highly relevant. As Bryce notes, the failure to capture the outer bands is a significant limitation in even these research-grade model simulations. I was intersted to learn that the outer bands in Isabel had so much high-impact weather associated with them, including possible localized storm surge in the northern Chesapeake.

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