TC Winds Group Conference Call Notes (11/8/10)

Representatives for the TC inland wind forecasts conducted a conference call on 11/8/10.  Below are the meeting notes, for other interested parties.
Attendees:
Dr. Anantha Aiyyer (NCSU), Bryce Tyner (NCSU), Reid Hawkins (ILM), Gail Hartfield (RAH), David Glenn
(MHX), Lara Pagano (MHX), Rich Bandy (MHX)

Reid introduction – collaboration for wind and wind gust is an obvious area of improvement
Anantha – status of questionnaire for operational forecasters
– i.e. What is the process for making W/WG forecasts? Goal is to streamline process.
– Bryce will email ILM/RAH/MHX group focal points to solicit feedback from forecasters
– David commented on trying to get a NHC/TPC collaborator
-Reid will follow up with Mike Brannan (Senior Hurricane Specialist – NHC).
-Gail requested a collaborator from one of the hurricane hunters as well

General question for attendees, what process is used in creating W/WG forecasts?
– Gail commented for WG, 10-15 knot value over sustained wind forecast is typically used
after assessing 925 mb winds, storm trajectory (i.e. Gulf vs. East Coast landfall).
– David commented that some forecasters may use a value above sustained while others may
use a percentage above sustained.

What about reduction of sustained winds over land?
– Gail commented – RAH uses the conceptual model created from previous RAH Deputy MIC
study. RAH also uses 15-20% reduction depending on scenario.
– Reid commented – summer student study on wind reduction showed roughly 10% near the
coast to 20% farther inland.

Anantha question, are land use/coastline differences used in W/WG forecasts?
-General response is that land use data are not specifically used and that we are
currently constrained by a 5km grid spacing in NDFD forecast products.

Reminder that study area is the Southeast U.S.

Bryce asked about obtaining archived NDFD data, Reid will check into this

What should the end product smart tool look like?
– Gail – terrain is very important, mentioned that climatology should be used in some
manner, perhaps even an analog storm case for forecasters to use.
– Anantha – expect smart tool to include some NHC inputs such as wind radii, storm motion,
angle of track, along with previous storm analogs from climatology.
-Goal to have a unified approach to best solution for W/WG prediction.
– Reid – concurred with Gail and Anantha, would promote collaboration between offices if an appropriate analog were agreed upon prior to creating W/WG forecasts.
– Rich – requested land use data be included, Reid indicated it may be a better possibility
when we go down to 2.5 km grids for NDFD.

Action Items
– Get questionnaires out to collaborating offices, each office then solicits feedback, each
office TC wind group contact gathers feedback and forwards to Bryce and Anantha. Plan to
accomplish in the next few weeks, hopefully by the end of Nov.
– Next conf. call will discuss results of questionnaire and data sources used in verification
step(s).
– Bryce requested that offices email him about specific storms that should be closely
addressed.
– David will follow up with potential use of WeatherFlow data for verification. What about
H*Wind analyses for these storms as well, may be a good starting point for gridded
verification? Lara also mentioned the use of NDBC buoy data for verification

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One Response to TC Winds Group Conference Call Notes (11/8/10)

  1. Jeff Waldstreicher says:

    NDFD grids are archived at NCDC. Data is available via nomads or HDSS for the period 6/6/04 – 10/5/08. I am not sure where the more recent data is, but it should be available somewhere at NCDC. Having the ’04 and ’05 seasons, even thouogh TCMWind tool was less mature, could prove useful.

    http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php
    http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect

    Jeff

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