I am posting a new post as opposed to replying to Justin’s most recent post about the upcoming possible HSLC environment because I can’t seem to find a way to include images in a comment of an existing post (if anyone has insight on how to do this please let me know).
I just wanted to post a few SREF images which provide some additional confidence in a possible HSLC environment this coming Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. As Justin noted in his post, the models seem to be converging on a solution that show the possibility of a squall line/QLCS scenario within an HSLC environment.
In the above images you will see that the SREF forecast has a high probability of CAPE values greater than 250 J/kg across much of South Carolina, but lower probabilities of CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg. Shown in the images below, there is a very high probability of 0-3km helicity meeting or exceeding 200 m2/s2 and the effective shear meeting or exceeding 30 knots.
Another interesting aspect of this scenario is the amount of moisture that will be available for this system to work with. Below is the SREF mean precipitable water image which shows PW values pushing up to or exceeding 1.5 inches just ahead of the frontal boundary, which is significantly higher than normal.
This should be an interesting event to monitor as it unfolds.