Models suggest interesting HSLC situation Tues Night/Early Wednesday

The NAM continues to depict the potential for  a classic HSLC/QLCS/”broken-S” setup beginning across the western Carolinas during the evening, progressing across the remainder of the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic overnight. However, if anything, the model seems to have backed away ever so slightly from the CAPE values it was forecasting 36 hours ago. Nevertheless, it still looks as if it could be a LONG night for operational forecasters across the region.  

AWIPS 4-panel NAM display. 29 Nov 2010 18Z run valid at 1 Dec 2010 06Z. Top Left: 3-hour accumulated precip (image), MSLP (blue lines), surface wind barbs; Top Right: H10-H8 divergence (image, cold colors are convergence) and H8 wind barbs; Bottom Left: SBCAPE (image), 0-3km shear magnitude (lines); Bottom Right: H8-H5 Omega (image), H5 height contours

Same as above, except valid at 09Z 1 December 2010.

Same as above, except valid at 12Z.

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