I thought I would share an animation of low level reflectivity forecasts from multiple WRF simulations preceding the 30 Nov-01 Dec severe weather event. The loop below was created initially from AWIPS and then edited to add web based reflectivity products. The image includes hourly forecasts from the 30 Nov 12 UTC init NCEP HiResWindow WRF NMM (upper left), the 30 Nov 12 UTC init NCEP HiResWindow WRF ARW (upper right), the 18, 17, and primarily 16 UTC init HRRR (lower left) and an observed regional base reflectivity product. We are receiving the NCEP HiResWindow NMM & ARW along with the HRRR in AWIPS regularly and trying to incorporate them into our operations. While the imagery is not comprehensive and only includes the run available to forecasters during the late afternoon preceding the event, I thought it was interesting.
The animation is intriguing in how the various solutions handle the three key convective features (the line of convection moving across the mountains and eventually the Piedmont; the modest in intensity and coverage warm advection type showers across the coastal Carolinas, and the limited intensity discrete convection across the eastern Carolinas between 06-08 UTC.
4 panel image of forecast and observed reflectivity from 18 UTC 30 November to 12 UTC 01 December