Another Paper of Interest

The Davis et. al. paper below should of of interest to both the tropical cyclone winds and the tropical cyclone intial conditions projects. The study used the HRW WRF to perform 69 pairs of simulations for a total of 10 Atlantic tropical cyclones using an ensemble Kalman filter initialization. They noted that with just a few exceptions, that using high-resolution forecasts performed as well as, or significantly better than, the coarse-resolution forecasts of hurricane intensity and structure.

Davis, Christopher, Wei Wang, Jimy Dudhia, Ryan Torn, 2010: Does Increased Horizontal Resolution Improve Hurricane Wind Forecasts?. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1826–1841

This entry was posted in CSTAR, TC and Boundary QPF, TC Improved Initial Conditions, TC Inland and Marine Winds. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to Another Paper of Interest

  1. bptyner says:

    Just finished reading the paper–very interesting results. Few interesting results:

    -The coarse resolution forecasts displayed a low intensity bias for strong storms, and the high-resolution simulations displayed a high intensity bias for weak storms.

    -In general, there is a weak model bias for winds early in the simulations, like due to the relative coarse initial conditions used in the model. Furthermore, nested forecasts tend to be better at short-time scales than lower-resolution models, suggesting increased resolution allows the model to adjust faster to the coarse initial conditions.

    As Jonathan mentioned, these results are very relevant to both the tropical cyclone winds and tropical cyclone initial conditions projects. After the observational and forecast verifications are complete in the wind study, high resolution models will be utilized in order to help improve wind forecasts. As the paper notes, improved initial conditions coupled with the high resolution models will likely greatly improved forecasts for tropical cyclones.

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