Approach of Hurricane Irene and frontal systems

We all know about the uncertainty surrounding the forecast track of Hurricane Irene and the possible implications.  To add to the complexity, models are also picking up on a potential interaction with the cold front that is expected to trail the ever important shortwave crossing the Great Lakes.  The forecast orientation of the cold front has also been interesting in past runs with some indications of a more east/west orientation, although this is less evident in the most recent model runs.  The GFS (which is the image attached) even show possible interactions with a seabreeze and/or remnants of the boundary that is currently hung up along the coast, with convection moving inland over the Carolinas as early as Thursday.

GFS 60hr forecast precipitation

This entry was posted in CSTAR, TC and Boundary QPF. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to Approach of Hurricane Irene and frontal systems

  1. A quick look at the 00/06 UTC 8/24 models still indicates the main cold front lingers across the Foothills of NC/VA into the DC/PHL area on Friday into Saturday so any direct interaction may be limited. The GFS/NAM still indicate some enhancement to lingering bounday/coastal front that perisits along the coast.

    The latest HPC QPF guidance shows the QPF max shifting east toward and off the coast with a minimum across central NC.

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