Irene Wind Verification

Here is a look at some preliminary, quantitative comparisons of the NDFD forecasts and the HWIND analysis for various times. Essentially, I have interpolated the NDFD and HWIND gridded data onto a common grid, and then calculated the difference. Warm colors indicate overdone forecasts, with cool colors indicating underdone forecasts. A few common patterns:

-It appears the forecasts immediately near the forecast center were pretty well done.
-There appeared to be a transitional area just outside the eyewall region, where the wind forecasts appear to be most overdone.
-I agree with Jonathan’s previous post, in that WFO forecasting regions clearly show up in the difference plots.

Comments are welcome!

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One Response to Irene Wind Verification

  1. gmlnc says:

    Bryce and all,

    One question I had (and I sent this to the Albany map list this afternoon): What about power outages? Data are lost… I’ll copy what I sent below:

    Concerning the wind observations: There is an additional simple factor which contributes to the dearth of hurricane-force wind observations: Power outages. Do the ASOS data loggers continue to work on battery power, allowing data to be recovered after the fact? Or are the data simply lost when the power goes out? If there is a battery-powered data logger, are these observations utilized in post-event classification work?

    The attached images from Katrina and Irene reveal that the locations of likely strongest winds are devoid of observations, due to loss of power or damage to instrumentation. This is especially true for Katrina, but was also the case for Irene.

    I didn’t see anything obvious on the regular ASOS manual page, but I found some documentation that says ASOS units only run for 10 minutes without power. I found another source which implied that congress had mandated UPS for coastal ASOS units following Katrina (and the source said that massive amounts of data were lost with Katrina), but I was unable to find out if this had been implemented. Perhaps some others know?



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