A conference call with the principal investigators, the collaborative investigators, and students participating in the ongoing CSTAR project was held on 09 September. Some notes from the call are shown below.
Participants included Dr Lackmann, Dr Parker, Dr Aiyyer, Bryce Tyner, Keith Sherburn, Jason Davis, and Jordan Dale (NCSU), Pat Moore, Justin Lane (GSP), Hunter Coleman (CAE), Jim Hudgins, Stephen Keighton (RNK), Barrett Smith, Gail Hartfield, and Jonathan Blaes (RAH)
Tropical cyclone inland winds
- A conference call was recently held in July
- Verification of NDFD forecasts across the southeast for the past 5 years or so is well underway
- Bryce visited WFO RAH during Hurricane Irene to see the real time creation and collaboration of inland winds associated with tropical cyclones in GFE
- A closer examination of NDFD verification for Hurricane Irene is underway
- Bryce will be looking at developing land reduction and gust factors with a goal of providing guidance for land reduction/gust factors for multiple different thermodynamic profiles
- WFO’s reported using some of the initial NDFD verification during Hurricane Irene to increase land reduction fractions over previous seasons and this was helpful
- The CI and along with other NWS folks contacted the developers of the GFE TCMWindTool and have begun a process to identify/recommend changes to the current tool and will share some comments at the hurricane conference
- Another conference call is expected in later September
High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) convection
- Monthly conference calls continue on the 4th Thursday of the month and are well attended
- The group has created an outstanding list of HSLC cases from the past 5 years to investigate
- A null dataset is being developed by WFO FFC
- Each participating WFO will put together a case study or two from the comprehensive list
- WFO GSP is developing the first case study to provide a framework/sample case study to evaluate with the goal of agreeing on a standard case study setup/layout
- Two students will be working on the project (Keith Sherburn and Jason Davis) which will allow this research problem to be examined in multiple angles
- Mesoscale analysis data has been acquired from SPC and unified imagery will be constructed
- SPC has modified their mesoanalysis contours to add additional CAPE contours at the 250/500 J/Kg to better support operations
Tropical cyclone initialization
- Briana Gordon who was working on this project, graduated this fall and completed her MS.
- Research results which were preliminary are hoped to be shared via a journal article in the future
- Dr Lackmann has agreed to create and present a webinar early next summer for an operational audience on how TC initialization is accomplished and how this impacts operational NWP. The goal is to provide a baseline of knowledge (bogusing, vortex relocation, etc) to forecasters and share with them the strengths and limitations of each system in a way that would be helpful for forecasters.
QPF associated with tropical cyclone boundary interaction
- This subproject will now benefit from the addition of a new student, Jordan Dale who recently finished up at Penn State and arrived at NC State in August. The loss of support for the HME subproject will lead to increase support and prominence for the TC boundary interaction project
- This project will examine the interaction of tropical cyclones with weak or marginal boundaries. The goal is to identify what processes determine if a boundary will form and then determine the resulting distribution of precipitation and wind.
- Current activities include getting Jordan spun up and the identification of boundary TC interaction cases.
- Plan another subproject conference call later this month
- Real time production has been halted with changes in participating principal investigators and computational resources
- A summary of experiences including lessons learned and recommendations for similar projects in the future is being developed
- A related paper was presented at the 3rd International Joint Topical Meeting on EmergencyPreparedness & Response and Robotics & Remote Systems, Knoxville, TN, American Nuclear Society. Buckley, R. L., D. W. Werth, S. R. Chiswell, and B. J. Etherton, 2011: High-Resolution Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling at SRNL.
- Submissions for next progress report are needed in early November with a focus on operational deliverables and linkages
- Next quarterly call is scheduled for the first week or two of November
- Participants are encouraged to add blog entries as interesting events or discoveries are made