TC Wind Project Conference Call Notes and Post Irene Assessment (10/4/11)

A conference call was conducted for the TC Inland Winds project. The slides presented can be found in the attached file. The general notes from the conference call are below (courtesy: David Glenn).

Attendees: Bryce Tyner (NCSU), Mike Brennan (NHC), Larry Brown (AKQ), Frank Alsheimer
(CHS), Jonathan Blaes (RAH), Reid Hawkins (ILM), David Glenn (MHX)

H*Wind – NDFD comparisons, sought to compare forecast that was only a few hours difference
between NDFD forecast and H*Wind analysis
• H*Wind does incorporate METAR locations but not all sites (i.e. Econet sites).
• ASOS didn’t come online until early 90s, prior to that was mostly manual

TCM wind tool improvements –
• RAH – local study found that 30-33% fit better for reduction of winds over land,
prior to that 20-25% was commonly used.

Other methods for NDFD forecast verification –
• Bryce plans to create wind gust factor data similar to Larry Browns blog post.

Irene (2011) forecaster observations/notes –
• Several coastal offices mentioned 20-25% reduction of sustained winds over
• AKQ mentioned how offices north of AKQ used a much lower reduction of winds
over land. Also mentioned how gust factors (forecast wind gusts) were too low,
especially farther inland.
• Very difficult to reduce sustained winds below headline (TS warning/H warning)
during the event even though frequent gusts may be above headline
• Jonathan suggested edit areas for distance from coast and distance from storm
center instead of a broad brush 25-35% reduction. This can very time consuming
given the hectic environment prior to TC landfall and goal of getting forecast out
as soon as possible.
• Probabilistic vs deterministic forecast dilemma, NHC intensity forecast viewed as
worst case scenario.

Other suggestions/comments –
• NHC/OPC will soon incorporate GFE into creating gridded wind forecasts
• Need to have some results/action items for the NOAA hurricane conference next
month. Have Reid send a sentence or two about previous service assessment
comments on NDFD items.
• Jonathan has a student volunteer working on hourly gust factors overlaid on
radar imagery.

PowerPoint slides from the call are available by linking the link below:
October 2011 Conference Call

This entry was posted in TC Inland and Marine Winds. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to TC Wind Project Conference Call Notes and Post Irene Assessment (10/4/11)

  1. Pingback: CSTAR Update – notes from the quarterly conference call on 02 December | CIMMSE

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