A conference call was conducted for the TC Inland Winds project. The slides presented can be found in the attached file. The general notes from the conference call are below (courtesy: David Glenn).
Attendees: Bryce Tyner (NCSU), Mike Brennan (NHC), Larry Brown (AKQ), Frank Alsheimer
(CHS), Jonathan Blaes (RAH), Reid Hawkins (ILM), David Glenn (MHX)
H*Wind – NDFD comparisons, sought to compare forecast that was only a few hours difference
between NDFD forecast and H*Wind analysis
• H*Wind does incorporate METAR locations but not all sites (i.e. Econet sites).
• ASOS didn’t come online until early 90s, prior to that was mostly manual
TCM wind tool improvements –
• RAH – local study found that 30-33% fit better for reduction of winds over land,
prior to that 20-25% was commonly used.
Other methods for NDFD forecast verification –
• Bryce plans to create wind gust factor data similar to Larry Browns blog post.
Irene (2011) forecaster observations/notes –
• Several coastal offices mentioned 20-25% reduction of sustained winds over
• AKQ mentioned how offices north of AKQ used a much lower reduction of winds
over land. Also mentioned how gust factors (forecast wind gusts) were too low,
especially farther inland.
• Very difficult to reduce sustained winds below headline (TS warning/H warning)
during the event even though frequent gusts may be above headline
• Jonathan suggested edit areas for distance from coast and distance from storm
center instead of a broad brush 25-35% reduction. This can very time consuming
given the hectic environment prior to TC landfall and goal of getting forecast out
as soon as possible.
• Probabilistic vs deterministic forecast dilemma, NHC intensity forecast viewed as
worst case scenario.
Other suggestions/comments –
• NHC/OPC will soon incorporate GFE into creating gridded wind forecasts
• Need to have some results/action items for the NOAA hurricane conference next
month. Have Reid send a sentence or two about previous service assessment
comments on NDFD items.
• Jonathan has a student volunteer working on hourly gust factors overlaid on
PowerPoint slides from the call are available by linking the link below:
October 2011 Conference Call