CSTAR TC Inland Winds Conference Call on 10/14 – first steps of R2O

A conference call for the Tropical Cyclone Winds CSTAR project was held on Friday, October 14. Participants included Reid Hawkins (ILM), Frank Alsheimer (CHS), John Billet (AKQ), Gail Hartfield & Jonathan Blaes (RAH), and Dr Aiyyer (NCSU).

NDFD wind forecast during Hurricane Irene valid 2PM EDT on Saturday, August 27

NDFD wind forecast during Hurricane Irene valid 2PM EDT on Saturday, August 27

During the previous CSTAR TC Inland Winds conference call, it was noted that while the research is incomplete, the team should begin discussing ways to improve the creation of wind and wind gusts in GFE through training and improved tools based. In addition, it was also noted that NOAA Hurricane Conference is coming up and the team should submit an agenda item for the conference to enlist the support of the Tropical Hazards Team and GFE developers.

  • During the 10/14 call, an agenda item for the NOAA Hurricane Conference was crafted seeking the support of the Tropical Hazards Team and GFE developers. The agenda item was submitted late Friday.
  • There was also some discussion of the required research deliverables that are needed to bring some enhanced functionality to the TCMWindTool and to create a new TCWindGustTool. The group noted that identifying quality land reduction factors and some sort of TCM product correction factor are likely the best initial opportunities to help forecasters. Dr Aiyyer and Bryce were asked to prioritize this and share some results during the next few months.  
  • Bryce is expected to begin conducting experimental modeling studies soon. These modeling efforts will be helpful with more complicated and interrelated items such as storm structure/symmetry, air mass/boundary layer influences, land decay, terrain & land use, speed of motion, wind field size and other issues.
  • It was also agreed that the team led by Reid with help from Frank/Bob (CHS) and Gail (RAH) will create a short set of unified set of training slides that ER WFOs could easily incorporate into their tropical cyclone training.  The materials will be completed by spring and will likely include the items below:
  1. Demonstrate the problem, examples of poor collaboration abound
  2. Illustrate the inexact nature of the TCM product by noting the limitations the NHC deals with in creating the TCM (Brennan slides)
  3. Provide the NDFD verification from this project which notes a consistent high bias in wind forecasts
  4. Provide initial guidance on quality land reduction factors and some sort of TCM product correction factor
  • The next conference call will likely be held in late November or December.
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