Notes from 11/3/11 CSTAR QPF conference call
- Jonathan Blaes (RAH)
- Barrett Smith (RAH)
- Gary Lackmann (NCSU)
- Jordan Dale (NCSU)
- David Roth (HPC)
- Eric Seymour (AKQ)
- Frank Alsheimer (CHS)
Topics covered on the call:
- Dr. Lackmann and company are looking to publish results from the Tropical Cyclone Model Initialization project, and also deliver a presentation to WFO’s on model initialization as it relates to tropical cyclones
- A review of potential boundary interaction and model performance during Hurricane Irene. A synoptic cold front approached the East Coast in the days leading up to landfall. A prefrontal MCS moved into southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina approximately 36 hours prior to landfall, but appeared to have been shallow and ultimately washed out before significant rainbands moved inland. No obvious boundary interaction was noted. This case will likely go down as a non-event when cases are categorized.
- Possible ways to gather and categorize events for the project. Ultimately, it was decided that a list of all tropical cyclones affecting areas from Georgia to the Mid-Atlantic during the past 10 years (initially) will be created in an Excel spreadsheet. The list will then be distributed to the participating offices for input on any cases that may have had boundary interaction and/or significant QPF forecast issues. Jordan Dale will be sending out some resources for identifying cases, and Barrett Smith and Jonathan Blaes will initially be in charge of formulating a list of cases.
- Input on cases will hopefully be collected by the beginning of January. In addition to understanding the physical mechanisms at play during events, there is also interest in the predictability of mesoscale boundaries. There was discussion as to how to appropriately gauge model performance from system to system when there are changes to the operational models every few years. It may be worth looking into how the model performance changes would have affected some older cases, possibly collaborating with the Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP)
The next call is tentatively schedule for the first week of January. Once a meeting time is determined, it will become the regular meeting time each month.