High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) Presented at a Recent Conference

Last August at the 3rd International Joint Topical Meeting on Emergency Preparedness & Response and Robotics & Remote Systems conference in Knoxville, a paper entitled “High-Resolution Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling at SRNL” by Robert Buckley and coauthors was presented that discussed the development and use of the High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble or HME. The paper was embargoed for a period of 6 months following the conference; but now after the completion of that delay, the paper can be viewed at http://sti.srs.gov/fulltext/SRNL-STI-2010-00777.pdf.

As noted in the paper, the HME was a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members.

Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system was produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information was performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results that were available on the RENCI website.

The HME is no longer being generated because changes in staffing and the loss of key computational resources and archived data at RENCI. While it is disappointing that the HME is no longer operating, what was accomplished is noteworthy. A group of more than a half dozen WFO’s and other partners worked together to build a near operational ensemble, a remarkable accomplishment. Valuable lessons were learned on how to make this type of project more successful in the future and a greater understanding of NWP was gained by the participating offices. These results are expected to be shared in the coming months. In addition, the Convection Allowing High Resolution NWP Reflectivity Comparison web page (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/hiresnwp/) was developed as a result of the HME project.

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