Boundary impacts with TD Beryl

Tropical Depression Beryl is beginning to move northeast out of Georgia today, and is forecast to track across eastern SC toward the NC coast tonight and Wednesday.  A cold front and a line of prefrontal convection are currently approaching the Appalachians from the west, and the remnants of the convection are forecast to move into the Piedmont later tonight.  The true front is forecast to hold back to the north and west.   We have been monitoring each forecast and noting how models are responding to the potential interaction of TD Beryl and the outflow/convergence zone, and NC State student Jordan Dale was actually able to come over to the WFO in Raleigh to look at some of the observations and forecasts with us (a great benefit of the student intern course we are able have here!).

It doesn’t appear that the boundary interaction with TD Beryl is going to have significant impacts over Central NC, but rainfall totals of 3-5 inches are expected over Coastal NC and we expect some enhancement of rainfall from the boundary overnight into early Wednesday.  Hopefully a short review will follow after the event.

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2 Responses to Boundary impacts with TD Beryl

  1. Phillip Badgett says:

    Great heads up! On the evening shift… the convective outflow had pushed to near KINT to KDAN as of 1000 PM. However… the main cold front was still back along the western slopes. A solid line of convection had pushed into the foothills of NC and deep into the central VA Piedmont. Locally heavy rain was occurring with 1 to 1.5 inches in less than an hour noted in Wilkes/Surry NC between 800 and 900 PM. The rain with Beryl was still well south (deep in SC)… but was heavy on the north and west side of the circulation from Augusta to Columbia… tracking slowly NE. Most of our region was overturned by convection and associated outflows this afternoon with the main outflows converging from Mt. Airy to Danville. I really like the placement of the current FFW for our Coastal Plain and Sandhills… closest to the track forecast. I am undecided what to do with the convective outflow boundary (which some Hi-res models as you mentioned) have had a good handle on and came true. Will the outflow boundary simply dissipate as these models forecast as it nears the Triangle before 12Z (with heavy rain into Orange County possibly 3 inches)?? Or will there be some interaction after or even before that time with the tropical flow of moisture from Beryl (PW’s over 2 inches at the coast and 1.8 at GSO). Tough forecast to say the least.

  2. Pingback: Notes from CSTAR QPF group call – June 13, 2012 | CIMMSE

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