Monthly Archives: June 2012

Derecho in Progress? Damaging Wind Threat in VA/NC later this Evening/Tonight?

All, An ‘unregionally’ and anomalously strong elevated mixed layer is present across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, with 700-500 mb lapse rates on the order of 8-9 C/km.  The combination of very steep mid-level lapse rates, temperatures in the lower 100’s, … Continue reading

Posted in Convection | 2 Comments

Potential Update to TCMWindTool: Wind Interpolation Method

As has been discussed, the TCMWindTool currently uses the Modified Rankine Vortex method for wind speed interpolation from the TCM product.  For those unfamiliar with the Modified Rankine Vortex, here are a few of the key features: The method requires … Continue reading

Posted in TC Inland and Marine Winds | 2 Comments

Unheard of Greensboro 850-hPa Temperatures Predicted

Updated to include anomaly forecasts… The NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are all forecasting some unheard of 850-hPa temperatures across the Carolinas through the weekend.  The figure below provided by Jason Cordeira from the University of Albany is a histogram … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

HSLC Environmental Climatology Update

Over the last several months, the HSLC environmental climatology has been gaining steam. With the null data now in hand, I have begun to compare the environments of HSLC events and nulls. However, prior to the acquisition of the null … Continue reading

Posted in High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 2 Comments

Notes from CSTAR QPF group call – June 13, 2012

Notes from 6/13/2012 CSTAR TC Boundary/QPF conference call 6 participants Barrett Smith (RAH) Gary Lackmann (NCSU) Jordan Dale (NCSU) Frank Alsheimer (CHS) Jonathan Blaes (RAH) Jim Hudgins (RNK) Notes: Jordan Dale presented his most recent analysis of TS Ernesto.  20km … Continue reading

Posted in CSTAR, TC and Boundary QPF | Leave a comment

TC Inland Winds Conference Call Notes 6/13/12

Conference Call Attendees:  Jonathan Blaes-RAH, Michael Brennan-NHC, John Billet-AKQ, Bob Bright-CHS,  Frank Alsheimer-CHS, Reid Hawkins-ILM, & Bryce Tyner-NCSU The TC Inland Winds group held its monthly conference call on 6/13/12.  The call began with a discussion of Bryce’s recent NDFD verification … Continue reading

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Notes from the 31 May 2012 HSLC conference call

Participants – NCSU (Matt Parker, Jason Davis, Keith Sherburn), GSP (Justin Lane), RAH (Jonathan Blaes, Mike Strickler), RNK (Steve Keighton), LWX (Steven Zubrick), FFC (Steve Nelson, Trish Palmer), AKQ (Andrew Zimmerman), CAE (Hunter Coleman) JB from RAH got the call … Continue reading

Posted in CSTAR, General Information, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | Tagged | Leave a comment

Follow up to TD Beryl

As a follow up to Jordan’s event summary for TD Beryl (, here is a radar loop from KRAX showing the interaction of TD Beryl with convective outflow from storms over western Virginia on the evening of May 29th (Fig. … Continue reading

Posted in TC and Boundary QPF | Leave a comment

Final Summary NDFD Verification

As part of the creation of the climatology/statistical paper for the TC Inland Winds Group, NDFD forecasts were verified by comparing the latest forecast cycle prior to verification to H*Wind surface analyses.  NDFD sustained wind speed forecasts are available since … Continue reading

Posted in TC Inland and Marine Winds | 1 Comment

TD Beryl Event Summary

Beryl originated as a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean which tracked northeastward off the Southeast US coast on May 25 (Fig. 1). The system was initially classified a subtropical storm on 00Z May 26 as its motion became west-southwesterly along … Continue reading

Posted in CSTAR, TC and Boundary QPF | 2 Comments