NDFD Final Verification

An objective verification of NDFD forecasts for TCs affecting the study region has been completed.  NDFD wind speed grids are available since they became operational in 2006.  NDFD data is compared to H*Wind surface wind analysis provided by the Hurricane Research Division.  Six storms were examined:  Ernesto (2006), Gabrielle (2007), Cristobal (2008), Hanna (2008), Earl (2010), and Irene (2011).  The plots have been posted to the following URL: www4.ncsu/~bptyner

If you have time, please review the plots and make notes of any interesting observations, conclusions, or any other information that you feel is important.  Send all comments to bptyner@ncsu.edu so Bryce can compile the comments and incorporate them into the final report.  Also, if there are additional plots or normalization methods you wish to see, please contact Bryce and he will be sure to add the additional plots.

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2 Responses to NDFD Final Verification

  1. Jonathan Blaes @ WFO RAH says:

    Nice charts Bryce. I need to look at them more closely so I can provide more comments, but I have a couple of suggestions for additional items.
    * I would suggest adding some charts with NDFD bias with forecasts from 24 or 48 hours in advance. I think we might have talked about this previously.
    * Is there a way to produce an objective bias calculation? I can see that most of the bias maps are red and sometimes very red, but it could be helpful if there is an average bias metric or two that could be produced. For example, for the five storms, for the 24 hour forecast, the average NDFD bias across all grid points was 8.8 knots? Or, since the areas impacted by the storms change you could do a bias calculation at specific grid points such as ILM, FLO, LBT, MYR, FAY, etc. We could provide the points which could be ~5 per CWA or about 30 or so total. I think that a metric would be helpful, especially to compare ~00 hour, 24 hour, and 48 hour forecasts.

  2. Pingback: Some Observations and Forecasts of Wind and Wind Gusts Associated with Isaac as it Made its Second Landfall | CIMMSE

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