In lieu of minutes from the 26 July conference call, here are Jason’s and Keith’s presentations from the call.
JASON CALL hslccall_0726
KEITH CALL hslc_update_072612
I wanted to clarify one thing from last month’s presentation. The FAR I refer to is the False Alarm Rate, which is the number of false alarms divided by the sum of the false alarms and correct nulls. It is *not* the False Alarm Ratio, typically used for warning skill statistics, which is the quotient of the false alarms and the sum of the hits and false alarms. The False Alarm Ratio is typically higher, especially in relatively rare events (such as significant HSLC tornado and wind events). Overall, I believe the True Skill Statistic is the most robust way to determine the skill of a parameter, as it considers all possibilities in the contingency table (hits, false alarms, misses, and correct nulls).
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