I apologize for the delay in this post (I just now realized I had saved it as a draft and did not do a final publication of it).
The CSTAR TC Winds Group held their monthly conference call on Wednesday, September 12th. The participants on the call were Bryce Tyner (NCSU), Gale Hartfield (RAH), Reid Hawkins (ILM), John Billet (AKQ), Michael Brennan (NHC). A summary of the call is highlighted below:
- Bryce presented some of his verification of the Holland et al. (2010) vortex interpolation method. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the influence of altering the 30, 50, and 64 knot maximum wind radii supplied into the various interpolation methods. The sensitivity analysis for Irene (2011) revealed a 5-10 knot range in the wind speeds outputed with the modified rankine vortex method when the maximum wind radii were adjusted based on the estimated range of errors provided by NHC. This was higher than the 0-2 knot sensitivity seen in the Holland et al. (2010) interpolation method. The reduced sensitivity to wind radii estimates in the Holland et al. model is seen as an improvement, as the wind radii estimates are not seen as a good product provided by NHC. This sensitivity analysis is currently being extended to other storms affecting the region.
- Bryce is in the process of placing the H*Wind, Holland et al., and modified rankine interpolated wind speeds on a common grid to allow for objective comparison in the wind speeds at all locations.
- An NDFD verification questionnaire has been developed by the TC Winds group and will be distributed to the various WFOs. The purpose of the questionnaire is to get as much feedback on the NDFD verification images as possible. These comments will be incorporated into the observational/climatological paper that will be submitted to Weather and Forecasting.
- Reid discussed his recent update on the CSTAR TC wind project to members of the Tropical Hazard Team and the NWS Eastern Region Headquarters in collaboration with Jonathan. The update included information on the development and update of trainingmaterials for forecasters, the development and testing of new tools and methodologies for GFE, and exploring improvements to the vortex model used in the TCMWindTool.
- Our next conference call will be held Wednesday, October 10th at 11 a.m.
- Slides from the call are available here: cc_2012_9