Notes from the 10/3 CSTAR TC QPF conference call

6 participants

  • Barrett Smith (RAH)
  • Gary Lackmann (RAH)
  • Jordan Dale (NCSU)
  • Jim Hudgins (RNK)
  • Jonathan Blaes (RAH)
  • Eric Seymour (AKQ)

Most of the call covered the following topics:

  •  Jordan has run numerous WRF simulations with different initialization data and start times in an attempt to find a find a simulation that best represents Hurricane Ernesto (2006).
  • There is a common westward track bias in all of the WRF simulations, as well as the operational forecasts.
  • From the ensemble of simulations, a 36km WRF run initialized at 12z on Sept 30th using the GFS forecast as initial and boundary conditions was found to have the best overall track and strength representation.  Despite the westward track error, a cursory look at simulated reflectivity and frontal analysis (using 2m Theta and surface frontogenesis) showed promising results.
  •  Using a Cold Air Damming (CAD) analysis technique from Bailey et al. (2003), Jordan found that weak CAD was occurring over the Carolinas and Virginia prior to landfall.  An initial hypothesis is that the CAD may have played a role in the westward bias of model simulations; the model was unable to capture the CAD, allowing simulated TC to move further inland than was observed.  Further analysis of the WRF simulations is needed to verify whether or not the CAD was represented.
  • Jordan also created a poster to be presented at the NWA Annual Meeting in Madison, WI.  The poster was shipped to Madison, but due to funding issues, no one was able to accompany the poster.  The poster was, however, on display for attendees to view during the meeting.

Click to view a PDF of the poster

Hurricane Ernesto (2006): Frontal Influence on Precipitation Distribution


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