Interesting test for the SHERB Sunday in Southern GA.

We have a  pretty dynamic set up coming into the southern part of the study area on Sunday. Looking at 18Z Saturday run of the 12km NAM, the model is hinting at a comma-shaped MCS moving through southern Georgia. These images show surface pressure, winds, and model simulated surface reflectivity starting at 18Z Sunday every 3 hours. NAM12_500MB_Height_20140316_2100F027NAM12_500MB_Height_20140317_0000F030NAM12_500MB_Height_20140317_0300F033NAM12_500MB_Height_20140317_0600F036   NAM12_500MB_Height_20140316_1800F024

 

SHERB values are quite high, but instability is poor over the northern half of the region of interest. These images show the SHERB along with the surface-based CAPE during the same time frame.

NAM12_500MB_Height_20140316_1800F024NAM12_500MB_Height_20140316_2100F027NAM12_500MB_Height_20140317_0000F030NAM12_500MB_Height_20140317_0300F033 NAM12_500MB_Height_20140317_0600F036

The darker green shading indicates SHERB values greater than 1.

It seems as though the strongest “bullseye” of SHERB values stays just north of the surface-based CAPE (in this model, of course) tomorrow afternoon and evening, at least in relation to the CHS CWA. It’s going to be close, though, and makes for an interesting forecast. We could see some pretty good rotations to the west of the area on radar with those kind of values, making the radar operator a little nervous, even though the instability will be minimal.

 

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