TS Arthur and Frontal Interaction – Surface Analysis Best Practices

The combination of Tropical Storm Arthur passing close to the Carolina coast and a cold front approaching from the west this week may lead to some additional mesoscale forecast concerns, namely TC-frontal interaction and qpf.  It is well-known that the presence of a frontal boundary prior to and during the landfall of a tropical cyclone can alter, sometimes dramatically, the resulting rainfall distribution. In the upcoming event, some models are already indicating a potential PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) over the Mid-Atlantic States and New England.

During the recent CSTAR Tropical Cyclone/QPF project, there were numerous discussions on how to  anticipate and identify surface front features that may play an important role in modifying the precipitation distribution with a land-falling storm.  The research group, along with invaluable help from RAH forecasters, created a list of surface analysis tips and techniques, many of which can be directly applied to a tropical event.  In light the impending potential interaction with TS Arthur, this is a prime opportunity to share the guidance.  Please note that this is by no means a complete list of techniques, as there are countless ways to recognize/identify boundaries in observations and data.  If you have other methods that are not listed, please feel free to share!!

Surface Analysis Best Practices (click to view pdf)

This entry was posted in CSTAR, TC and Boundary QPF. Bookmark the permalink.

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