The project entitled “Improving Understanding and Prediction of High Impact Weather Associated with Low-Topped Severe Convection in the Southeastern U.S.” will be a collaboration between principal investigators (PIs) and students at N.C. State University in collaboration with a dozen WFOs in the Southeast along with the Storm Prediction Center and the HMT group at the Earth System Research Lab. The three-year project is being funded as a part of the NOAA/NWS Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research (CSTAR) Program. This project will build off of previous collaborative research between N.C. State and the NWS which has had very successful research to operation results along with the integration of students into NOAA and the NWS.
Severe convective storms in environments with large vertical wind shear and marginal instability (so-called “high-shear low-CAPE”, or “HSLC” events) represent a significant short-term, high-impact forecasting and warning challenge, particularly in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. These environments account for a substantial fraction of severe wind and tornado reports in the region, and they are present for many hours each year. The long-range goal of the research is to improve predictions and warnings for hazardous weather in HSLC environments.
The research will be conducted through a set of collaborative research studies that are listed below:
- HSLC process study using idealized modeling and emulated radar sampling (PI Dr Parker along with students Keith Sherburn and Jessica King)
- Operational NWP Resolution and sensitivities study using HSLC event hindcasts (PI Dr Lackmann along with student Lindsay Blank)
- Predictability study using ensembles and dynamical-statistical downscaling (PI Dr Xie along with Dr. Bin Liu and student Dianna Francisco)
- Operational assessment of HSLC forecasting composite parameters (PI Dr Parker along with student Keith Sherburn)
Participants have been invited to a workshop this November in Raleigh to share results from the previous CSTAR research and to spin up the new collaboration with discussions on project execution. Prior to the workshop, Keith Sherburn will be leading a webinar providing a review of the previous HSLC research and an introduction to an operational assessment of HSLC forecast parameters that begins this fall in earnest.