Due to time limitations, I don’t have a lot to say about this event right now, but I wanted to post something in order to (hopefully) initiate some discussion about a possible late weekend HSLC event over the Southeast.
Below is a four-panel display that I use for convective forecasting. There’s a lot more stuff contained within this procedure than is shown, but what is displayed in the image is Upper Left: MSLP, surface wind vectors, surface divergence (cold colors are convergence); Upper Right: H8 wind vectors, H10-H8 divergence; Lower Left: SHERB (color-fill, red is 1.0, white is “really high”), sbCAPE (white lines), 0-3 km bulk shear vector; Lower Right: H5-H3 omega (with warm colors being UVV).
As you can see, there is very robust deep layer forcing aligned with the frontal zone. Given positive buoyancy, this appears to be a good candidate for a shallow QLCS to develop somewhere across the region by Sunday afternoon.