Possible HSLC Event on 4 Jan 2015

Due to time limitations,  I don’t have a lot to say about this event right now, but I wanted to post something in order to (hopefully) initiate some discussion about a possible late weekend HSLC event over the Southeast.

Below is a four-panel display that I use for convective forecasting. There’s a lot more stuff contained within this procedure than is shown, but what is displayed in the image is Upper Left: MSLP, surface wind vectors, surface divergence (cold colors are convergence); Upper Right: H8 wind vectors, H10-H8 divergence; Lower Left: SHERB (color-fill, red is 1.0, white is “really high”), sbCAPE (white lines), 0-3 km bulk shear vector; Lower Right: H5-H3 omega (with warm colors being UVV).

As you can see, there is very robust deep layer forcing aligned with the frontal zone. Given positive buoyancy, this appears to be a good candidate for a shallow QLCS to develop somewhere across the region by Sunday afternoon.

NAM four-panel display, valid at 18Z on 4 Jan 2015. (See text for explanation).

NAM four-panel display, valid at 18Z on 4 Jan 2015. (See text for explanation).

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