Another Early Season Tropical Cyclone on which to Utilize CSTAR Based TC Wind Tools

Fig. 1. NDFD wind gust forecast valid 8PM EDT Sun 10 May, 2015.

Fig. 1. NDFD wind gust forecast valid 8PM EDT Sun 10 May, 2015.

The early arrival of Subtropical Storm Ana will provide Southeast WFOs with another opportunity to use and evaluate a new technique to forecast tropical cyclone winds and wind gusts. A Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research (CSTAR) project with North Carolina State University and over a half dozen WFOs in the Southeast, examined ways to add science and improve inland wind and wind gust forecasts associated with tropical cyclones. The CSTAR TC wind technique consists of three primary improvements including a bias correction of the TCM wind vortex, using collaborated wind reductions over land, and using collaborated wind gust factors for wind gust grids across the domain. This summer, the foot print of the project will expand to WFOs Wakefield and Sterling ,VA and Columbia, SC.  An example of the Wind Reduction Factor and Wind Gust Factor grids for 8PM EDT Sun 10 May, 2015 are shown below in Figure 2.

Fig. 2. CSTAR TC wind technique Wind Reduction Factor (left) and Wind Gust Factor (right) grids, valid 8PM EDT Sun 10 May, 2015 as viewed in GFE.

Fig. 2. CSTAR TC wind technique Wind Reduction Factor (left) and Wind Gust Factor (right) grids, valid 8PM EDT Sun 10 May, 2015 as viewed in GFE.

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