I wanted to pass along some work that WFOs Springfield and St. Louis MO along with other partners have been doing relating to efforts to improve QLCS Tornado Warnings. These efforts have an overlap with some of the our HSLC CSTAR work.
Jason Schaumann, Lead Forecaster WFO Springfield, MO will be providing a presentation discussing some of this work during an upcoming conference call, likely in October. Prior to the October call, it would be helpful to have our group work through the links below including the SLS manuscript, Hollings website, Google Site, and YouTube videos. The two YouTube presentations are a great overview of all of the work over the last five years. During the call, Jason can help if anyone would like further explanation, or examples, or alternatively, he can demonstrate through a case study.
The initial work: Operational Application of 0-3 Km Bulk Shear Vectors in Assessing QLCS Mesovortex And Tornado Potential by Jason Schaumann and Ron Pryzbylinski describes the three ingredients method for anticipating mesovortex genesis and rapid intensification. This methodology applies for both the cold and warm seasons. A statistical research project was conducted by a Hollings Scholar student to show the statistical significance of the three ingredients method.
Subsequently they worked to identify additional mesoscale and radar signatures that represent an increased probability for damaging winds and tornadoes from mesovortices. The recent culmination of these efforts includes guidance for issuing severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings for mesovortices. Most recently, Michael Mathews from Bismark, ND developed a two page handout and video condensing and highlighting this work.
Jason constructed a Google Site which summarizes all of this work. Included on this site are two recent webinars that were given to Central Region (and a few Southern Region) offices. The first presentation covers the three ingredients method while the second presentation covers radar and warning strategies.