October 2015 CSTAR High-Shear Low-CAPE Conference Call – Presentation from Jason Schaumann on QLCS Tornado Warning Research


The Three Ingredients Method as described in Schaumann and Przybylinski 2012.

Our October CSTAR call featured a guest presentation from Jason Schaumann, Lead Forecaster from the NWS Springfield, MO office, who shared work that he and other Central Region colleagues have been conducting on QLCS tornado warning strategies. The presentation focused on the introduction of the three ingredients method for anticipating mesovortex genesis and rapid intensification, statistical findings from a 2013 Hollings Scholar study, both warm and cold season examples of the operational application of the technique, along with radar features/mesoscale parameters which indicate an increased likelihood for tornadoes.

A recording of the presentation is available at… https://goo.gl/FMC7iU
A copy of the slide deck is available at… https://goo.gl/gwv5gy


Using the three ingredients method as a foundation, we have identified additional radar features and mesoscale parameters which indicate an increased likelihood for tornadoes

Some additional background on the project and reference information is available below…
The Operational Application of 0-3 Km Bulk Shear Vectors in Assessing QLCS Mesovortex And Tornado Potential by Jason Schaumann and Ron Pryzbylinski describes the three ingredients method for anticipating mesovortex genesis and rapid intensification. This methodology applies for both the cold and warm seasons. A statistical research project was conducted by a Hollings Scholar student to show the statistical significance of the three ingredients method.

Subsequently they worked to identify additional mesoscale and radar signatures that represent an increased probability for damaging winds and tornadoes from mesovortices. The recent culmination of these efforts includes guidance for issuing severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings for mesovortices. Most recently, Michael Mathews from Bismark, ND developed a two page handout and video condensing and highlighting this work.

Jason constructed a Google Site which summarizes all of this work. Included on this site are two recent webinars that were given to Central and Southern Region offices. The first presentation covers the three ingredients method while the second presentation covers radar and warning strategies.

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