Author Archives: bvincentnws

About bvincentnws

Meteorologist National Weather Service 2003 - Current

RE: Possible HSLC Event on 4 Jan 2015

All, This is a follow-up to Justin’s HSLC post.  I created a new post because the response box doesn’t allow (or seem to allow) multimedia content. Thoughts: Based on anecdotal forecast experience and pattern recognition, my opinion is that environmental … Continue reading

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Debris Signature with Isolated Tornadic Supercell adjacent to KRAX on March 29, 2014

All, The severe weather event that unfolded in central NC during the evening hours of March 29, 2014 was notable for several reasons.  Although diurnal destabilization in central NC was severely limited by widespread cloud cover, intermittent showers, and weak … Continue reading

Posted in CIMMSE | 6 Comments

1″/hr Snowfall Rates and Transition to Sleet as Observed by Time Lapse Photography and WSR-88D Data

Now that the much-awaited winter storm is unfolding across the region I thought I’d share a time lapse of today’s snow accumulation ending with a sudden changeover to sleet in Cary, NC (central Wake county).  The attached animated GIF contains 17 … Continue reading

Posted in Winter Weather | Tagged | 2 Comments

Significant Severe Weather in VA/NC on Thursday?

All, An upper level ridge strengthening over the plains (and extending north into Canada) on Tue/Wed will result in strengthening NW flow aloft downstream over the TN/OH valley and Mid-Atlantic on Wed, and the advection of a modified elevated mixed … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

08-09 Feburary 2013 Blizzard / Dual Pol Imagery

All, What an amazing storm.  A manual analysis of storm total snowfall accumulations for 08-09 February 2013 shows that 24″+ snow accumulations largely occurred in a SW-NE oriented band from Long Island to southern ME, with the heaviest accumulations (up … Continue reading

Posted in CIMMSE, Convection, CSTAR | 4 Comments

Strong to Damaging Wind Potential in Eastern NC Friday Morning?

All, A potential for strong to damaging winds exists Friday morning across eastern NC, especially in northeast NC and southeast VA.  A 1007 mb surface low upstream near Savannah GA at 01Z is progged to begin a period of rapid … Continue reading

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Gravity Wave in the NW Piedmont of NC this morning?

All, Rapidly falling pressures and anomalously strong winds are being observed in the far NW piedmont of NC this morning, suggesting the presence of a gravity wave.  The Mount Airy observation (KMWK) reported the following: METAR KMWK 261355Z AUTO 07031G42KT … Continue reading

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Potential for Significant Severe Weather on Wednesday December 26, 2012

All, Looking at the latest model guidance, it appears that a significant severe weather episode is likely over portions of the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening hours of Wed December 26. Shortwave energy over the Intermountain West this afternoon … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Follow-Up on the September 18, 2012 Severe Weather Event

All  (updated at 830 pm Thursday 09/20 after some discussion with coworkers), SPC upgraded much of the coastal Mid-Atlantic to a Moderate Risk on the Day 1 Outlook  at 1630Z 09/18/2012, with a 45% probability of damaging winds and a … Continue reading

Posted in High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 2 Comments

Severe Weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Tuesday

All, An amplifying northern stream trough will dig southeast from the upper midwest into the central MS river valley tonight, progressing into the Great Lakes and OH valley during the day Tuesday. A southern stream upper low over southeast TX … Continue reading

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