Author Archives: Keith Sherburn

MOSHE now available in beta form on SPC Mesoanalysis

The effective version of the Modified Severe Hazards in Environments with Reduced Buoyancy parameter (i.e., modified SHERBE or MOSHE), detailed in Sherburn et al. (2016), is now available in beta form on the SPC Mesoanalysis page. In observing the parameter’s … Continue reading

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 3 Comments

HSLC materials from Severe Local Storms Conference available, HSLC composite maps manuscript published

In November, CSTAR student Keith Sherburn traveled to the AMS Severe Local Storms Conference in Portland, OR to present recent research involving HSLC idealized simulations (via a talk) and composite environments (via a poster). Materials for this conference are now … Continue reading

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Potential HSLC severe event Thursday, March 24th, including VORTEX-SE deployment

A potent upper-level trough (Fig. 1) and associated surface cyclone (Fig. 2) moving through the eastern CONUS will bring a chance for severe high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) convection to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This event is … Continue reading

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December 23, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Contrary to other potential severe high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC)┬ásetups so far this autumn and winter, tomorrow’s setup appears to have the majority of pieces in place. The main story may be the high-CAPE setup during the afternoon and early evening across … Continue reading

Posted in CIMMSE, Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Thoughts on 11 November 2015 HSLC severe event in Midwest

On November 11, 2015, a generally well-forecast (Figure 1) high-shear, low-to-moderate CAPE severe event affected portions of the Midwest. Convection initially developed during the late morning in the vicinity of the triple point of an intense surface cyclone across northeastern … Continue reading

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 5 Comments

CSTAR project recordings and preprints online from AMS Conference on Mesoscale Processes

In August, Jessica King and Keith Sherburn traveled to the AMS Conference on Mesoscale Processes in Boston to present talks on their respective CSTAR HSLC projects. Recordings of these talks and conference preprints are now available for viewing online at … Continue reading

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HSLC Idealized Hodograph Sensitivity Studies: Overview of all 12 Simulations

During the July conference call, I presented preliminary work from a matrix of 12 simulations geared towards exploring the sensitivity of HSLC convection to low-level hodograph shape and the wind profile’s orientation relative to an initiating cold pool. As I … Continue reading

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | Tagged , | 2 Comments