Author Archives: Keith Sherburn

Modified SHERB forecast plots now available

Forecast graphics for the modified SHERB (MOSH) and SHERBE (MOSHE) parameters are now available at the following links for the RAP, NAM, and GFS: http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/rap/hslc.html http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/nam/hslc.html http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/gfs/hslc.html We have noticed that the calculated values show relative consistency between models, and … Continue reading

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A pair of HSLC-related presentations: NOAA VLab Forum and AMS Mesoscale Conference

Over the last few months, I have provided two presentations on recent HSLC-related research. In June, I was the presenter at NOAA’s VLab Forum, where I provided an overview of the ongoing HSLC CSTAR project based at NC State University. … Continue reading

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MOSHE now available in beta form on SPC Mesoanalysis

The effective version of the Modified Severe Hazards in Environments with Reduced Buoyancy parameter (i.e., modified SHERBE or MOSHE), detailed in Sherburn et al. (2016), is now available in beta form on the SPC Mesoanalysis page. In observing the parameter’s … Continue reading

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 3 Comments

HSLC materials from Severe Local Storms Conference available, HSLC composite maps manuscript published

In November, CSTAR student Keith Sherburn traveled to the AMS Severe Local Storms Conference in Portland, OR to present recent research involving HSLC idealized simulations (via a talk) and composite environments (via a poster). Materials for this conference are now … Continue reading

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Potential HSLC severe event Thursday, March 24th, including VORTEX-SE deployment

A potent upper-level trough (Fig. 1) and associated surface cyclone (Fig. 2) moving through the eastern CONUS will bring a chance for severe high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) convection to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This event is … Continue reading

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December 23, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Contrary to other potential severe high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC)┬ásetups so far this autumn and winter, tomorrow’s setup appears to have the majority of pieces in place. The main story may be the high-CAPE setup during the afternoon and early evening across … Continue reading

Posted in CIMMSE, Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Thoughts on 11 November 2015 HSLC severe event in Midwest

On November 11, 2015, a generally well-forecast (Figure 1) high-shear, low-to-moderate CAPE severe event affected portions of the Midwest. Convection initially developed during the late morning in the vicinity of the triple point of an intense surface cyclone across northeastern … Continue reading

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 5 Comments