Author Archives: Keith Sherburn

Modified SHERB forecast plots now available

Posted on August 25, 2017 by Keith Sherburn

Forecast graphics for the modified SHERB (MOSH) and SHERBE (MOSHE) parameters are now available at the following links for the RAP, NAM, and GFS: http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/rap/hslc.html http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/nam/hslc.html http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/gfs/hslc.html We have noticed that the calculated values show relative consistency between models, and … Continue reading →

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A pair of HSLC-related presentations: NOAA VLab Forum and AMS Mesoscale Conference

Posted on August 14, 2017 by Keith Sherburn

Over the last few months, I have provided two presentations on recent HSLC-related research. In June, I was the presenter at NOAA’s VLab Forum, where I provided an overview of the ongoing HSLC CSTAR project based at NC State University. … Continue reading →

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MOSHE now available in beta form on SPC Mesoanalysis

Posted on March 21, 2017 by Keith Sherburn

The effective version of the Modified Severe Hazards in Environments with Reduced Buoyancy parameter (i.e., modified SHERBE or MOSHE), detailed in Sherburn et al. (2016), is now available in beta form on the SPC Mesoanalysis page. In observing the parameter’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 3 Comments

HSLC materials from Severe Local Storms Conference available, HSLC composite maps manuscript published

Posted on December 10, 2016 by Keith Sherburn

In November, CSTAR student Keith Sherburn traveled to the AMS Severe Local Storms Conference in Portland, OR to present recent research involving HSLC idealized simulations (via a talk) and composite environments (via a poster). Materials for this conference are now … Continue reading →

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Potential HSLC severe event Thursday, March 24th, including VORTEX-SE deployment

Posted on March 23, 2016 by Keith Sherburn

A potent upper-level trough (Fig. 1) and associated surface cyclone (Fig. 2) moving through the eastern CONUS will bring a chance for severe high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) convection to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This event is … Continue reading →

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December 23, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

Posted on December 22, 2015 by Keith Sherburn

Contrary to other potential severe high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) setups so far this autumn and winter, tomorrow’s setup appears to have the majority of pieces in place. The main story may be the high-CAPE setup during the afternoon and early evening across … Continue reading →

Posted in CIMMSE, Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Thoughts on 11 November 2015 HSLC severe event in Midwest

Posted on November 12, 2015 by Keith Sherburn

On November 11, 2015, a generally well-forecast (Figure 1) high-shear, low-to-moderate CAPE severe event affected portions of the Midwest. Convection initially developed during the late morning in the vicinity of the triple point of an intense surface cyclone across northeastern … Continue reading →

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | 5 Comments

CSTAR project recordings and preprints online from AMS Conference on Mesoscale Processes

Posted on October 14, 2015 by Keith Sherburn

In August, Jessica King and Keith Sherburn traveled to the AMS Conference on Mesoscale Processes in Boston to present talks on their respective CSTAR HSLC projects. Recordings of these talks and conference preprints are now available for viewing online at … Continue reading →

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HSLC Idealized Hodograph Sensitivity Studies: Overview of all 12 Simulations

Posted on August 27, 2015 by Keith Sherburn

During the July conference call, I presented preliminary work from a matrix of 12 simulations geared towards exploring the sensitivity of HSLC convection to low-level hodograph shape and the wind profile’s orientation relative to an initiating cold pool. As I … Continue reading →

Posted in Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx | Tagged , | 2 Comments

NC State CSTAR HSLC SHERB Parameter Examined at the NWS Northern Indiana Office

Posted on May 2, 2015 by Keith Sherburn

The April 2015 high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) CSTAR conference call featured a guest presentation from Amos Dodson, forecaster from the NWS Northern Indiana (IWX) office. Amos recently presented work at the Central Iowa NWA’s Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference investigating … Continue reading →

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