Category Archives: NWP

Collaborative Effort to Account for the Impact of the August 21st Solar Eclipse on Operational Forecasts in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast

Meteorologists recognize that solar eclipses in the past have had a notable impact on the sensible weather in the regions in which they occur. These impacts can include a decrease in surface temperature, reduction and changes to surface winds, lowering … Continue reading

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Operational NWP Resolution and Sensitivities Study Using HSLC Event Hindcasts Summary

At last month’s CSTAR workshop, I shared the results and analysis of my thesis project as well as some thoughts on related future work. I would like to provide a summary of my and Dr. Lackmann’s work with this post … Continue reading

Posted in CIMMSE, Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx, NWP, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

CSTAR Project Presentation from the AMS Annual Meeting

In January, Lindsay Blank traveled to the 96th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans to present a talk on her CSTAR HSLC project. This presentation won 2nd place in the oral presentation category in the 6th … Continue reading

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Observational Resources for the Potential Severe Weather on Wednesday 24 February 2016

  The latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC indicates an enhanced risk of severe weather on Wednesday, 24 February, across central and eastern NC with a slight risk across much of the mid and south-Atlantic with a region of … Continue reading

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Two New Convection Allowing WRF Ensembles Provide Unique and Useful Guidance

Forecasters have recently gained access to two new convection allowing (CAM) WRF ensemble model forecasts. One ensemble is provide by NSSL and is a nine-member, WRF-ARW ensemble initialized daily at 00 UTC  while the other is a ten-member, WRF-ARW ensemble … Continue reading

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Changes Coming to the NCEP HiRes Window (HiResW) Forecasts in Late May, Opportunity to Preview and Evaluate the Changes Now Available

On Wednesday, May 28, 2014, beginning with the 1200 UTC run, NCEP will upgrade the High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HiResW). The upgrade includes changes to the model components, increases in horizontal and vertical resolution, changes in parameterized physics, product fields, … Continue reading

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ECMWF Makes another Move in the NWP Arms Race Today

The European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) based in the United Kingdom is initiating some significant changes in its NWP suite today. For full details on the changes visit their web page dedicated to this implementation (IFS cycle 40r1).  … Continue reading

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Notes on the Effective Use of High-resolution Models including CAMs

With the height of the spring convective season approaching and the increased use of Convection Allowing Models (CAMs), I thought I would share some notes I made after taking the COMET “Effective Use of High-resolution Models” training course. I understand … Continue reading

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RAP Surface Temperature Forecast Problems during Periods of Snow – Follow-up with Comments from Model Developers and another Possible Example from Today in northern Virginia

We previously shared an example of the RAP erroneously and excessively warming surface temperatures during periods of significant wet snow. That event occurred with RAP forecasts in the Raleigh-Durham area on February 16, 2013 – details of that event were … Continue reading

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NCSU offering real-time RAP plots on experimental basis

Hi All, As promised during the November workshop, I finally found time to get some RAP (RUC) plots of the SHERB on the web.  This is subject to all the usual caveats (it is only available when our computers and … Continue reading

Posted in CIMMSE, Convection, CSTAR, High Shear Low Cape Severe Wx, NWP, Uncategorized | 1 Comment