SPC Day 2 categorical and probabilistic outlooks for Wednesday.
The latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC indicates an enhanced risk of severe weather on Wednesday, 24 February, across central and eastern NC with a slight risk across much of the mid and south-Atlantic with a region of significant severe weather possible in the NC Coastal Plain and the Eastern Piedmont. I thought it might be helpful to share some of the new or irregularly available observations data that will likely be available on Wednesday including GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan 1-minute data, the NCEP “Fire Weather Nest” 1.33km high-res nest run model, MESO-SAILS nearly 1-minute radar data, and special upper air soundings.
GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R will be centered over the Southeast on 24 February, 2016. Super Rapid Scan Operations will provide 1-minute satellite imagery to support multiple research and GOES-R/S user readiness activities. Additional background information including training and links to online imagery is available at: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor2016/GOES-14_SRSOR.html. Imagery including visible, infrared, and water vapor is available on the web at the links below…
- UW-Madison SSEC GOES-14 SRSOR Imagery with Looping and Zooming
- CIRA Visible Loop
- CIRA IR Loop
- CIRA WV Loop
NCEP Fire Weather Nest domain for the 00 UTC, 06 UTC, and 12 UTC runs on 24 February.
The NCEP “Fire Weather Nest” 1.33km high-res nest model run will be centered over a portion of the severe weather threat area for the 00 UTC, 06 UTC, and 12 UTC runs on 24 February. The Fire Weather Nest will be centered at 35.5N, -79.0W as shown in the image to the right. You can access forecast fields from the 1.33km high-res FWN run at the following URL: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/
The Multiple Elevation Scan Option for Supplemental Adaptive Intra-Volume Low-Level Scan (MESO-SAILS) capability for the Doppler radar is being testing at 13 CONUS locations including Raleigh, NC (KRAX) and Morehead City, NC (KMHX) which are both in the severe weather threat area. MESO-SAILS will allow radar operators to add two, three or four low-level elevation scan updates per volume scan which depending on other factors could result in a base radar scan almost every minute which would allow excellent sampling of the low-levels and a unique perspective on the convection.
In addition, several special upper air soundings are anticipated tomorrow. These have been schedule for 15Z at Greensboro (KGSO) and likely a few other NWS locations. Some universities in the area may release soundings with NC State likely to do so and perhaps others from UNC Asheville and possibly UNC Charlotte. Finally, the Simmons Weather group at Fort Bragg and Simmons AAF may release some soundings on Wednesday.
CIMMSE 